2016 Census confirms housing unaffordability is for renters

Population and housing data from the 2016 Census has been released today, which means it's time to get your nerd on.

There are three critical things it tells us about housing in New South Wales.

First - there's been an increase in the number of households living in our state over the last five years, up from 2,471,305 in 2011 to 2,604,320 in 2016. The number of unoccupied dwellings has also increased, from 265,338 to 284,741. In percentage terms, unoccupied dwellings have risen from 9.7% to 9.9% of all dwellings. The idea of a sustained influx of foreign investors who leave properties empty is looking a little shaky on these numbers, but even so we're going backwards. It's clear we should be doing more to encourage property owners to put those empty dwellings to use, like taxing the unimproved value of land rather than transactions and transfers.

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Next - there's been a significant increase in the number of people renting in New South Wales. There were 826,922 renter households at the 2016 Census, which was 83,870 more than there were in 2011. To put this into context, that's almost double the increase we saw between 2006 and 2011. It also means our renting population has gone up in percentage terms since 2011, too - from 30.1% to 31.8% in 2016. There are more owner-occupiers, too, but as a percentage they've gone backwards. Households who own outright have gone from 33.2% to 32.2% of the population, while households who own with a mortgage have gone from 33.4% to 32.3%. That means home ownership across New South Wales has declined overall since 2011, from 66.6% to 64.5%. It also means that more people are renting for longer.

Finally - it will come as no surprise that making the rent is a growing struggle. The median rent across New South Wales has risen from $300/week in 2011 to $380/week in 2016. More telling is the number of renters whose rent takes up more than 30% of their income - that's gone up from 11.6% to 12.9% of the renter population. On the other hand, the number of home owners with a mortgage who find themselves in similar financial circumstances, paying more than 30% of their income towards their loan, has decreased from 10.5% to 7.4%. In case it wasn't already clear, low interest rates are great for those who already own a home, but they're not so good for anyone hoping to join their ranks in the foreseeable future. As much as they might appreciate grants and stamp duty discounts, what prospective homeowners need most is to be able to save.

So, here's our take-home message for policy makers at all levels: there can be no housing affordability without fixing the rent.